Would you replace a 16-year-old water heater before it starts leaking?

I’d lean toward replacing it if a leak could damage finished rooms or flooring. You can schedule the work, compare options, and avoid having to choose in a rush. Age alone can’t tell you when it will fail, but at 16 years, I’d treat replacement planning as overdue rather than assume it has plenty of life left.

If you decide to wait, check that any drain pan and drain line are set up properly, and consider a leak alarm or automatic shutoff. Those measures reduce the chance of a small leak becoming a major cleanup, but they don’t make an old tank reliable.

If it’s dry and working, keeping it for now is a reasonable choice. Some tanks last longer than expected, and replacing a functioning unit is a real expense. I’d set the replacement money aside, get a couple of estimates, and keep an eye out for moisture, corrosion, or changes in how it operates.

There isn’t a dependable way to predict the failure date from age alone. The decision mostly comes down to how much trouble a surprise leak or a rushed replacement would cause you.

I wouldn’t start draining it or trying to replace the anode rod without getting advice from a qualified plumber who has seen the unit. On an older, possibly unserviced tank, maintenance can be a different proposition than routine upkeep on a newer one. Ask what they’d recommend after inspecting it, and get a replacement quote at the same time.

That gives you a practical plan without assuming that either immediate replacement or leaving it untouched is right for every installation.